SuperSkin Persona Journeys
Purpose: Deep-dive into how three distinct user archetypes interact with SuperSkin across simple and complex scenarios
Companion to: USER_FLOWS.md
Last Updated: January 2026
The Three Archetypes
SuperSkin is designed to serve everyone from the casual weekend bettor to the full-time professional trader. However, each persona has fundamentally different needs, risk tolerances, and sophistication levels. The system adapts to serve each effectively.
| Archetype | Profile | Goal | Risk Appetite | System Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎰 The Casual Punter | Bets for fun, follows favorite teams | Entertainment + occasional wins | Low | Protector & Guide |
| 🧮 The Semi-Pro | Analytical, tracks bets, seeks edge | Consistent profit | Medium | Research Partner & Edge Finder |
| 🎯 The Professional | Full-time trader, sophisticated | Maximum ROI, portfolio management | High (calculated) | Execution Engine & Risk Manager |
🎰 ARCHETYPE 1: The Casual Punter
Meet Raju
Demographics:
- Age: 28, Sales Executive in Pune
- Betting budget: ₹500-2,000 per weekend
- Betting experience: 3 years (casual)
- Typical bets: IPL, Premier League, World Cup events
- Devices: Mobile only (Android)
Behavioral Profile:
- Bets on teams he supports emotionally
- Doesn't understand odds math or probability
- Gets excited by big accumulators with huge potential payouts
- Chases losses after a bad beat
- Cash outs too early when nervous, too late when greedy
- Thinks he's "due" for a win after a losing streak
Pain Points:
- "I always pick the wrong team"
- "Bookmakers are cheating me somehow"
- "I won ₹5,000 last month but lost ₹8,000 - where did it go?"
- "My friend told me about a 'sure thing' and it lost"
What Raju DOESN'T Know:
- Bookmaker margins are eating 5-10% of every bet
- His accumulator addiction has -35% ROI
- He bets 3x more after losses (revenge betting)
- His late-night bets perform 40% worse
How SuperSkin Helps Raju
The system acts as a Protector - saving Raju from himself while keeping betting fun.
The Invisible Safety Net
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ 🛡️ WHAT SUPERSKIN DOES BEHIND THE SCENES FOR RAJU │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ │
│ DETECTION ACTION │
│ ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── │
│ Raju places 4th acca this week → Gentle nudge: "Singles win │
│ more for you - try one?" │
│ │
│ Loss + immediate new bet → "Take a 30-min break? Your │
│ next-bet success drops 40% │
│ right after losses" │
│ │
│ Betting at 11:30 PM → "Night owl? Your evening │
│ bets are -18% vs daytime" │
│ │
│ ₹3,000 on one match (3x usual) → "This is bigger than normal. │
│ Sure about ₹3,000?" │
│ │
│ Cashing out with 80%+ prob → "You've left money on table │
│ 5 times this month - hold?" │
│ │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
Raju's Story: The IPL Final
Scenario: It's IPL Final day. MI vs CSK. Raju supports MI.
Scene 1: Morning (10 AM)
Raju opens SuperSkin. The app knows it's IPL Final day and knows Raju loves MI.
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ 🏏 IPL FINAL DAY! │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ │
│ MI vs CSK • Tonight 7:30 PM │
│ │
│ 📊 YOUR MI RECORD THIS SEASON: │
│ ├── Bets on MI: 8 │
│ ├── Won: 5 (62%) │
│ ├── Profit: +₹2,400 │
│ └── Best bet: MI vs RCB @ 2.30 (+₹1,300) │
│ │
│ 💡 "You do well betting ON MI, not against them!" │
│ │
│ CURRENT ODDS: │
│ MI: 2.15 (Bet365 best) | CSK: 1.78 (Pinnacle best) │
│ │
│ [Set Alert When Odds Change] [View Analysis] │
│ │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
What's happening: The app shows Raju data about HIS history with MI, not generic stats. This builds confidence based on facts, not emotion.
Scene 2: Afternoon (3 PM) - The Temptation
Raju's friend texts: "Bro, 10-leg acca paying 500x. MI+CSK top scorer+boundaries combo. Put ₹500 win ₹2.5 lakh!"
Raju opens SuperSkin to build the same accumulator.
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ 🎯 ACCUMULATOR BUILDER │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ │
│ Your 10-leg accumulator: │
│ Combined odds: 487x | Stake: ₹500 | Potential: ₹2,43,500 │
│ │
│ ⚠️ RAJU, CAN WE TALK? │
│ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ │ │
│ │ YOUR ACCUMULATOR HISTORY: │
│ │ ├── 10+ leg accas placed: 12 │
│ │ ├── Won: 0 (0%) │
│ │ ├── Total lost: ₹6,200 │
│ │ └── Expected win rate: 0.2% │
│ │ │
│ │ This bet has 99.8% chance of losing. │
│ │ │
│ │ 💡 ALTERNATIVE (same excitement, better odds): │
│ │ │
│ │ Instead of 1 × ₹500 on 10-leg: │
│ │ Try 5 × ₹100 on 2-leg accas │
│ │ • Your 2-leg acca win rate: 34% │
│ │ • Expected profit: +₹180 vs -₹497 on 10-leg │
│ │ │
│ │ [BUILD 5 SMALL ACCAS] [PROCEED WITH 10-LEG ANYWAY] │
│ │ │
│ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
│ │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
What's happening: SuperSkin doesn't BAN accumulators - that would make Raju leave. Instead, it shows HIS data (12 attempts, 0 wins) and offers a psychologically similar but mathematically better alternative.
Raju's Decision: He still places the 10-leg (FOMO with his friend) but now has doubt. When it inevitably loses, he remembers the warning. Next time, he might choose differently.
Scene 3: Pre-Match (6:30 PM) - Smart Betting
After the 10-leg loses its first leg, Raju returns to place a "real" bet.
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ 🏏 PLACE YOUR BET │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ │
│ MI vs CSK │
│ │
│ YOUR SELECTION: MI to win │
│ │
│ BEST ODDS COMPARISON: │
│ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ │ Bookmaker │ Odds │ On ₹1,000 you get │ Difference │
│ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ │ Bet365 │ 2.15 │ ₹2,150 │ BEST 🏆 │
│ │ Betway │ 2.08 │ ₹2,080 │ ₹70 less │
│ │ 1xBet │ 2.12 │ ₹2,120 │ ₹30 less │
│ │ Pinnacle │ 2.10 │ ₹2,100 │ ₹50 less │
│ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
│ │
│ 💰 By using Bet365 instead of Betway, you get ₹70 extra │
│ if MI wins! │
│ │
│ SUGGESTED STAKE: ₹800 │
│ (Based on your usual IPL stakes) │
│ │
│ [BET ₹800 @ 2.15] [CHANGE AMOUNT] │
│ │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
What's happening:
- Shows price comparison in MONEY terms, not percentages (Raju doesn't think in %)
- Suggests a stake based on his history (prevents impulsive over-betting)
- One-click to best odds (reduces friction)
Scene 4: Live Match (8:30 PM) - Cash Out Guidance
MI is 120/4 chasing 175. Raju is panicking. He opens the app.
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ 💰 CASH OUT AVAILABLE │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ │
│ MI vs CSK • MI need 55 from 30 balls │
│ │
│ YOUR BET: MI to win @ 2.15 (₹800) │
│ │
│ CASH OUT NOW: ₹680 │
│ (You lose ₹120 if you cash out) │
│ │
│ IF MI WINS: ₹1,720 │
│ (You profit ₹920) │
│ │
│ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ │ 📊 LET'S THINK ABOUT THIS... │
│ │ │
│ │ MI win probability: 58% │
│ │ Required run rate: 11.0 (current rate: 10.2) │
│ │ │
│ │ HARDIK PANDYA is at the crease (avg 38 @ SR 152) │
│ │ This is the kind of situation MI wins from. │
│ │ │
│ │ 💡 YOUR PATTERN: │
│ │ "Raju, last 4 times you cashed out in IPL chases, │
│ │ the team you backed won 3 times. You left ₹2,100 │
│ │ on the table." │
│ │ │
│ │ This is a HOLD situation for most bettors. │
│ │ But it's your money - you decide. │
│ │ │
│ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
│ │
│ [CASH OUT ₹680] [WAIT] [PARTIAL: ₹340] │
│ │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
What's happening: SuperSkin provides:
- Simple math (what you get now vs what you could get)
- Context (Pandya batting, run rate comparison)
- Personal history (you've cashed out wrong before)
- A middle option (partial cash out)
- NO guilt - "it's your money"
Raju's Decision: He does a partial cash out (₹340), keeping excitement while securing some return.
Result: MI wins. Raju gets ₹340 (cashed) + ₹460 (remaining bet wins) = ₹800. Broke even but learned something.
Raju: Simple vs Complex Scenarios
| Scenario | What Raju Wants | What SuperSkin Does |
|---|---|---|
| SIMPLE: Find best odds | "Where do I bet on MI?" | Show odds comparison in rupees, highlight best, one-click to place |
| SIMPLE: Check his bets | "Did I win?" | Push notification with result, profit/loss in simple terms |
| SIMPLE: Cash out | "Take money now?" | Show cash out vs potential, personal history of similar decisions |
| COMPLEX: Multi-match day | "5 matches today, which to bet?" | Rank by HIS success rate in those leagues, highlight where he wins |
| COMPLEX: Build accumulator | "I want to build a 5-leg acca" | Show his acca history, suggest optimal leg count based on his data |
| COMPLEX: Recover from losses | "Lost ₹2,000, how to get it back?" | Show he's on tilt, suggest break, show expected recovery timeline |
🧮 ARCHETYPE 2: The Semi-Pro
Meet Sneha
Demographics:
- Age: 31, Data Analyst at a tech company (Bangalore)
- Betting budget: ₹20,000-50,000 per month
- Betting experience: 5 years (increasingly analytical)
- Typical bets: Value-based, researched selections across multiple sports
- Devices: Laptop (primary) + Mobile for alerts
Behavioral Profile:
- Maintains a spreadsheet tracking all bets
- Calculates odds and margins manually
- Reads team news and injury reports
- Understands expected value and probability
- Occasionally falls for "smart-sounding" but wrong strategies
- Gets frustrated when she can't find value
- Over-optimizes and sometimes misses good bets
Pain Points:
- "I spend 2 hours finding value bets that could be automated"
- "I know bookmakers have edges but calculating true odds is hard"
- "Sometimes I bet on everything that looks like value and lose discipline"
- "I want to improve but don't know which of my strategies actually work"
What Sneha DOES Know:
- Expected value concept
- How to read odds movements
- That accumulators are -EV
- Kelly criterion (in theory)
What Sneha DOESN'T Know:
- Which of her own strategies actually make money
- When she's over-betting on marginal edges
- That her Serie A draws are +34% ROI (hidden in spreadsheet noise)
- She bets worse after midnight (fatigue)
How SuperSkin Helps Sneha
The system acts as a Research Partner - automating the grunt work and surfacing hidden insights.
The Intelligence Dashboard
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ 📊 SNEHA'S VALUE HUNTING DASHBOARD │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ │
│ PERSONALIZED VALUE FEED (based on your criteria): │
│ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ │ Match │ Bet │ Edge │ Conf │ Your ROI │
│ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ │ Napoli vs Inter │ Draw │ +9.2% │ 82% │ +34% 🔥 │
│ │ Bayern vs Dortmund │ BTTS Yes │ +6.8% │ 76% │ +18% │
│ │ RCB vs MI │ MI Win │ +5.4% │ 71% │ +22% │
│ │ Chelsea vs Arsenal │ Under 2.5 │ +4.1% │ 68% │ -8% ⚠️ │
│ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
│ │
│ 🔥 = You're historically profitable on this bet type │
│ ⚠️ = You've lost money on similar bets - proceed carefully │
│ │
│ QUICK FILTERS: │
│ [⭐⭐⭐ Only] [Edge >7%] [Conf >75%] [My Profitable Markets] │
│ │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
Sneha's Story: The Data-Driven Week
Scenario: It's Monday morning. Sneha has 30 minutes to plan her week's betting strategy before work.
Scene 1: Weekly Strategy Setup (7:30 AM)
Sneha opens SuperSkin's "Strategy" view.
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ 📅 WEEKLY PLANNER │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ │
│ LAST WEEK'S PERFORMANCE: │
│ ├── Bets placed: 18 │
│ ├── Won: 11 | Lost: 7 │
│ ├── Staked: ₹24,500 │
│ ├── Returns: ₹29,180 │
│ └── Profit: +₹4,680 (+19.1% ROI) │
│ │
│ 📊 WHAT WORKED LAST WEEK: │
│ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ │ Category │ Bets │ Win% │ ROI │ Comment │
│ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ │ Serie A Draws │ 4 │ 75% │ +42% │ Your edge 🏆 │
│ │ IPL Value Picks │ 5 │ 60% │ +24% │ Consistent │
│ │ EPL 1X2 │ 6 │ 50% │ +8% │ Okay │
│ │ Tennis O/U │ 3 │ 33% │ -18% │ Avoid? 🚫 │
│ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
│ │
│ 💡 AI INSIGHT: │
│ "Your Serie A draw strategy has +38% ROI over 3 months. │
│ This week has 4 Serie A matches fitting your criteria. │
│ Suggested allocation: 40% of weekly budget to draws." │
│ │
│ THIS WEEK'S OPPORTUNITIES (pre-scanned): │
│ ├── Serie A: 4 draw candidates (Tue, Wed, Sat, Sun) │
│ ├── IPL: 6 matches, 2 show value │
│ ├── Champions League: 8 matches, 3 strong signals │
│ └── TOTAL: 9 potential value bets │
│ │
│ SUGGESTED WEEKLY ALLOCATION: │
│ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ │ Total Budget: ₹25,000 │
│ │ ├── Serie A Draws: ₹10,000 (40%) │
│ │ ├── IPL Singles: ₹7,500 (30%) │
│ │ ├── CL Value: ₹5,000 (20%) │
│ │ └── Reserve: ₹2,500 (10%) │
│ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
│ │
│ [ACCEPT PLAN] [MODIFY] [VIEW DETAILED MATCHES] │
│ │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
What's happening: SuperSkin has:
- Analyzed her 3-month history to find winning strategies
- Pre-scanned the week's fixtures for matching opportunities
- Suggested budget allocation based on her edge in each market
- Created a structured plan (prevents over-betting on marginal edges)
Scene 2: Deep Research (Tuesday 7 PM)
Sneha has 45 minutes to research before the Napoli vs Inter match.
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ 🔬 DEEP ANALYSIS: Napoli vs Inter │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ │
│ 📊 VALUE SIGNAL: DRAW @ 3.65 │
│ Edge: +9.2% | Model Confidence: 82% | Your Draw ROI: +38% │
│ │
│ ════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ │
│ HOW WE CALCULATED THE EDGE │
│ ════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ │
│ │
│ STEP 1: TRUE PROBABILITY CALCULATION │
│ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ │ Model │ Napoli │ Draw │ Inter │ Weight │
│ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ │ XGBoost │ 38.2% │ 29.8% │ 32.0% │ 35% │
│ │ Poisson │ 36.5% │ 31.2% │ 32.3% │ 25% │
│ │ ELO-adjusted │ 37.8% │ 28.5% │ 33.7% │ 25% │
│ │ Market Implied │ 39.1% │ 27.4% │ 33.5% │ 15% │
│ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ │ WEIGHTED AVG │ 37.8% │ 29.4% │ 32.8% │ │
│ │ Fair Odds │ 2.65 │ 3.40 │ 3.05 │ │
│ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
│ │
│ STEP 2: MARKET COMPARISON │
│ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ │ Outcome │ Fair Odds │ Market Best │ Edge │ Verdict │
│ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ │ Napoli │ 2.65 │ 2.55 │ -3.9% │ ❌ No value │
│ │ Draw │ 3.40 │ 3.65 │ +7.3% │ ✅ VALUE │
│ │ Inter │ 3.05 │ 2.95 │ -3.4% │ ❌ No value │
│ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
│ │
│ STEP 3: EDGE ENHANCEMENT FACTORS │
│ ├── News: Osimhen doubtful (not priced in) → +1.2% │
│ ├── H2H: 5 of last 8 meetings = draw → +0.7% │
│ └── TOTAL EDGE: 7.3% + 1.9% = 9.2% │
│ │
│ ════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ │
│ YOUR PERSONAL EDGE │
│ ════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ │
│ │
│ 📊 Your Serie A draw betting history: │
│ ├── Total bets: 28 │
│ ├── Won: 16 (57%) │
│ ├── ROI: +38% │
│ ├── Best odds range: 3.30 - 4.00 (+44% ROI) │
│ └── This bet (3.65) is in your sweet spot ✅ │
│ │
│ ════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ │
│ STAKE RECOMMENDATION (Kelly Criterion) │
│ ════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ │
│ │
│ Formula: f* = (p × b - q) / b │
│ Where: p = 29.4% (true prob), b = 2.65 (net odds), q = 70.6% │
│ Kelly stake = 2.8% of bankroll │
│ │
│ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ │ Your bankroll: ₹75,000 │
│ │ │
│ │ Full Kelly: ₹2,100 (aggressive) │
│ │ Half Kelly: ₹1,050 (recommended) │
│ │ Quarter Kelly: ₹525 (conservative) │
│ │ │
│ │ Your historical stake on ⭐⭐⭐: ₹1,200 avg │
│ │ Suggested: ₹1,200 (matches your pattern + Kelly) │
│ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
│ │
│ [PLACE ₹1,200 BET] [MODIFY STAKE] [ADD TO WATCHLIST] │
│ │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
What's happening: Sneha gets:
- Full methodology transparency (she's analytical, she wants to see the work)
- Personal data overlaid (her Serie A draw ROI is +38%)
- Kelly calculation done for her (saves 10 minutes)
- A recommended stake that's both Kelly-optimal AND matches her behavior
Scene 3: Portfolio Management (Saturday 6 PM)
Sneha has 5 bets running across 3 sports. She needs a unified view.
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ 📊 PORTFOLIO VIEW Saturday 6 PM │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ │
│ ACTIVE POSITIONS: 5 Total exposure: ₹8,200 │
│ │
│ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ │ # │ Match │ Bet │ Stake │ Status │
│ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ │ 1 │ Napoli vs Inter │ Draw 3.65 │ ₹1,200 │ ✅ WON │
│ │ │ Final: 1-1 │ │ │ +₹3,180 │
│ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ │ 2 │ Bayern vs Dortmund │ BTTS 1.75 │ ₹1,500 │ 🔴 LOST │
│ │ │ Final: 2-0 │ │ │ -₹1,500 │
│ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ │ 3 │ Arsenal vs Chelsea │ Draw 3.40 │ ₹1,500 │ 🟡 LIVE │
│ │ │ Score: 0-0 (67') │ │ │ C/O: ₹2,100 │
│ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ │ 4 │ RCB vs MI │ MI 2.30 │ ₹2,000 │ ⏳ 8:00 PM │
│ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ │ 5 │ Roma vs Lazio │ Draw 3.20 │ ₹2,000 │ ⏳ 10:30 PM │
│ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
│ │
│ CURRENT P&L: +₹1,680 │
│ ├── Settled: +₹1,680 (1W, 1L) │
│ ├── Live exposure: ₹1,500 (Arsenal match) │
│ └── Pending exposure: ₹4,000 (RCB, Roma) │
│ │
│ 📊 CORRELATION ALERT: │
│ "You have 3 draw bets today. If all win: +₹8,700 │
│ If all lose: -₹4,700. Current expectation: +₹1,200" │
│ │
│ 💡 ARSENAL MATCH INSIGHT: │
│ "0-0 at 67 min with draw bet = 68% win probability. │
│ Cash out at ₹2,100 vs potential ₹5,100. │
│ Your history: Let 0-0 draws ride - you're +22% doing so." │
│ │
│ [CASH OUT ARSENAL] [RIDE ALL] [EXPORT TO SPREADSHEET] │
│ │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
What's happening:
- Portfolio view (like a stock portfolio) - Sneha thinks in investments
- Correlation warning (overexposed to draws)
- Data-driven cash out advice
- Export option (feeds into her spreadsheet obsession)
Sneha: Simple vs Complex Scenarios
| Scenario | What Sneha Wants | What SuperSkin Does |
|---|---|---|
| SIMPLE: Find value | "Show me today's edges" | Curated list filtered by her profitable markets |
| SIMPLE: Calculate stake | "How much should I bet?" | Kelly calculation with personal risk adjustment |
| SIMPLE: Track bets | "How am I doing?" | Portfolio view with P&L, not just wins/losses |
| COMPLEX: Strategy backtest | "Would this filter work?" | 6-month backtest on her criteria with breakdown |
| COMPLEX: Weekly planning | "What should I bet this week?" | Pre-scanned opportunities with budget allocation |
| COMPLEX: Optimize strategy | "What's making me money?" | Factor analysis: which strategies, sports, times work |
🎯 ARCHETYPE 3: The Professional
Meet Vikram
Demographics:
- Age: 36, Former Quant Trader (Delhi)
- Betting as primary income: ₹3-8 lakhs per month
- Betting experience: 10+ years (full-time for 5)
- Typical bets: 50-100 per week across all markets
- Devices: Multi-monitor setup, API access where possible
Behavioral Profile:
- Treats betting as a trading operation
- Uses multiple models (self-built and commercial)
- Manages bankroll across 15+ bookmaker accounts
- Understands variance, drawdowns, and risk of ruin
- Times bets to capture steam moves
- Arbitrages when possible
- Gets limited/banned by bookmakers regularly
Pain Points:
- "I need real-time odds across 30 markets simultaneously"
- "I'm limited on 5 bookmakers - I need to maximize soft books"
- "My models are good but I miss execution by seconds"
- "I need to correlate my positions to manage portfolio risk"
- "Recording every bet for tax purposes is a nightmare"
What Vikram DOES Know:
- Everything about odds, probability, and value
- How to build and validate betting models
- Portfolio management and Kelly staking
- That most "tips" and "systems" are garbage
- When bookmakers are about to limit him
What Vikram NEEDS:
- Speed (seconds matter)
- Integration with his workflow
- Risk management dashboards
- Portfolio-level analytics
- Account management across bookmakers
How SuperSkin Helps Vikram
The system acts as an Execution Engine - providing speed, data integration, and portfolio-level risk management.
The Professional Trading Interface
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ ⚡ VIKRAM'S TRADING DASHBOARD Live: 47 mkts │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ │
│ ┌─────────────────┬─────────────────┬────────────────────────┐ │
│ │ ALERTS │ LIVE MOVERS │ STEAM DETECTION │ │
│ ├─────────────────┼─────────────────┼────────────────────────┤ │
│ │ 🔴 Roma Draw │ Liverpool +5% │ ⚡ Man City U2.5 │ │
│ │ Edge now 12% │ in 8 minutes │ STEAM: -8% / 3min │ │
│ │ 3.80→4.05 │ │ Act NOW │ │
│ │ │ Djokovic -3% │ │ │
│ │ 🟡 RCB Over │ in 12 minutes │ ⚡ Bayern Draw │ │
│ │ Edge 7.2% │ │ STEAM: -6% / 5min │ │
│ │ Stable │ Chelsea +4% │ 2min window │ │
│ │ │ in 20 minutes │ │ │
│ └─────────────────┴─────────────────┴────────────────────────┘ │
│ │
│ QUICK EXECUTION: │
│ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ │ [⚡ Roma Draw ₹25K] [⚡ Man City U2.5 ₹15K] [Custom] │
│ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
│ │
│ HOTKEYS: R = Roma, M = ManCity, B = Bayern, ESC = Cancel │
│ │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
Vikram's Story: The Champions League Night
Scenario: Tuesday night. 4 Champions League matches at 12:30 AM IST. Vikram has positions to manage and new opportunities to capture.
Scene 1: Pre-Match Setup (11:00 PM)
Vikram has his models running. He's identified 6 value spots. Now he needs to plan execution.
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ 📊 TONIGHT'S BATTLE PLAN │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ │
│ MY MODELS SAY: │
│ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ │ Match │ Bet │ My Edge │ Best Odds │ Book │
│ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ │ Bayern vs PSG │ Draw │ +11.2% │ 4.10 │ Pin │
│ │ Real vs Liverpool │ Over 2.5 │ +8.4% │ 1.92 │ B365 │
│ │ Inter vs Atlético │ Under 2.5 │ +7.8% │ 2.05 │ 1xB │
│ │ Arsenal vs Porto │ Arsenal │ +6.2% │ 1.58 │ Bway │
│ │ Man City vs Napoli │ BTTS No │ +5.1% │ 2.15 │ Pin │
│ │ Dortmund vs PSV │ Dortmund │ +4.2% │ 1.72 │ B365 │
│ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
│ │
│ SUPERSKIN OVERLAY: │
│ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ │ Match │ SS Edge │ Conf │ Agree? │
│ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ │ Bayern vs PSG │ +9.8% │ 84% │ ✅ ALIGNED │
│ │ Real vs Liverpool │ +7.2% │ 79% │ ✅ ALIGNED │
│ │ Inter vs Atlético │ +6.5% │ 72% │ ✅ ALIGNED │
│ │ Arsenal vs Porto │ +3.8% │ 65% │ ⚠️ WEAKER │
│ │ Man City vs Napoli │ +1.2% │ 58% │ ❌ DISAGREE │
│ │ Dortmund vs PSV │ +4.8% │ 71% │ ✅ ALIGNED │
│ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
│ │
│ 💡 INSIGHT: │
│ "Your models and ours align on 4 bets (Bayern, Real, Inter, │
│ Dortmund). Historically, aligned bets have +24% ROI vs │
│ +11% for your solo picks. Consider doubling aligned stakes." │
│ │
│ ⚠️ CONFLICT ON MAN CITY BTTS NO: │
│ "Your model says +5.1% edge. Our model says +1.2%. │
│ Recent news: Haaland trained separately (possible rest). │
│ This may explain our lower confidence. Your call." │
│ │
│ BOOKMAKER ACCOUNT STATUS: │
│ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ │ Book │ Balance │ Status │ Max Stake │
│ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ │ Pinnacle │ ₹2,45,000│ ✅ Full │ Unlimited │
│ │ Bet365 │ ₹1,80,000│ ⚠️ Limited │ ₹5,000 (was ₹25,000) │
│ │ 1xBet │ ₹95,000 │ ✅ Full │ ₹50,000 │
│ │ Betway │ ₹65,000 │ ⚠️ Limited │ ₹8,000 │
│ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
│ │
│ SUGGESTED ALLOCATION: │
│ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ │ Match │ Book │ Stake │ Note │
│ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ │ Bayern Draw │ Pin │ ₹35,000 │ Max confidence │
│ │ Real Over 2.5 │ 1xBet │ ₹25,000 │ B365 limited │
│ │ Inter Under 2.5 │ 1xBet │ ₹20,000 │ Best odds here │
│ │ Arsenal Win │ Pin │ ₹12,000 │ Lower conf, use Pin │
│ │ Dortmund Win │ 1xBet │ ₹15,000 │ Aligned │
│ │ Man City BTTS No │ SKIP │ - │ Model conflict │
│ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
│ │ TOTAL EXPOSURE: ₹1,07,000 │
│ │
│ [EXECUTE ALL] [MODIFY] [EXPORT TO SHEET] │
│ │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
What's happening:
- Vikram's own models are integrated - SuperSkin doesn't replace, it enhances
- Cross-validation shows where models align (higher confidence bets)
- Conflict analysis with reasoning (Haaland news)
- Account limitations factored into allocation
- One-click execution for the entire battle plan
Scene 2: Live Trading (12:45 AM)
Bayern vs PSG is 15 minutes in. Vikram has ₹35,000 on Draw @ 4.10.
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ ⚡ LIVE TRADING: Bayern 0-0 PSG (15') │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ │
│ YOUR POSITION: Draw @ 4.10 │
│ Stake: ₹35,000 | Potential: ₹1,43,500 │
│ │
│ LIVE ODDS CHART: │
│ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ │ Draw │
│ │ 4.50 ┤ │
│ │ │ ╭──╮ │
│ │ 4.25 ┤ ╭────╯ ╰───╮ │
│ │ │ ╭────╯ ╰──╮ │
│ │ 4.00 ┤──────────────╯ ╰───── NOW │
│ │ │ │
│ │ 3.75 ┤ │
│ │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────── │
│ │ KO 5' 10' 15' 20' 25' 30' │
│ │ │
│ │ Current: 3.85 | You entered: 4.10 | Paper P&L: +₹2,275 │
│ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
│ │
│ LIVE PROBABILITY: │
│ ├── Draw: 26% (was 24% at KO) │
│ ├── Bayern: 52% (was 48%) │
│ └── PSG: 22% (was 28%) │
│ │
│ CASH OUT: │
│ ├── Full: ₹37,275 (+₹2,275, +6.5%) │
│ └── Market value: ₹37,800 (C/O is -1.4% worse than market) │
│ │
│ HEDGE OPTIONS: │
│ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ │ Option │ Stake │ If Bayer │ If Draw │ If PSG │
│ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ │ No hedge │ - │ -₹35,000 │+₹108,500│ -₹35,000 │
│ │ Hedge Bayern │ ₹18,000 │ +₹4,800 │ +₹90,500│ -₹53,000 │
│ │ Hedge Bayern+PSG│ ₹28,000 │ +₹8,200 │ +₹80,500│ +₹12,400 │
│ │ Full Dutch │ ₹42,000 │ +₹5,100 │ +₹66,500│ +₹8,800 │
│ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
│ │
│ 💡 TRADE INSIGHT: │
│ "0-0 at 15' is good for your draw. xG: Bayern 0.2, PSG 0.1. │
│ Low tempo so far. Hold unless goal scored." │
│ │
│ ⚠️ STEAM ALERT: Bayern drifting from 1.95 → 2.05 (5%) │
│ "Smart money moving against Bayern. Good for your draw." │
│ │
│ [HEDGE BAYERN] [HEDGE BOTH] [HOLD] [EXIT] │
│ │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
What's happening:
- Real-time price chart like a trading terminal
- Paper P&L calculated instantly
- Cash out vs market value comparison (exposes bookmaker edge on cash out)
- Pre-calculated hedge scenarios
- xG integration for match context
- Steam alerts for informed traders
Scene 3: Portfolio Risk Management (1:30 AM)
Vikram has 5 live positions across 4 matches. He needs a unified risk view.
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ 📊 PORTFOLIO RISK DASHBOARD │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ │
│ LIVE EXPOSURE MATRIX: │
│ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ │ Match │ Position │ Status │ Mark-to-Mkt │
│ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ │ Bayern vs PSG │ Draw ₹35K │ 0-0 22' │ +₹3,100 │
│ │ Real vs Liverpool │ O2.5 ₹25K │ 1-1 18' │ +₹8,400 │
│ │ Inter vs Atlético │ U2.5 ₹20K │ 0-0 25' │ +₹4,200 │
│ │ Arsenal vs Porto │ Ars ₹12K │ 0-0 20' │ -₹1,800 │
│ │ Dortmund vs PSV │ Dort ₹15K │ 1-0 15' │ +₹6,100 │
│ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
│ │
│ AGGREGATE P&L: │
│ ├── Total staked: ₹1,07,000 │
│ ├── Current M2M: +₹20,000 (+18.7%) │
│ ├── Best case (all win): +₹92,400 │
│ ├── Worst case (all lose): -₹1,07,000 │
│ └── Expected value: +₹31,200 (based on live probabilities) │
│ │
│ CORRELATION RISK: │
│ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ │ ⚠️ HIGH CORRELATION: Inter U2.5 + Bayern Draw │
│ │ Both benefit from low-scoring matches │
│ │ Combined exposure: ₹55,000 │
│ │ If both matches have goal before 40': -₹48,000 est. │
│ │ │
│ │ 💡 SUGGESTION: Consider hedging ONE position to decorrelate │
│ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
│ │
│ VAR ANALYSIS (Value at Risk): │
│ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ │ 95% VaR: -₹68,000 │
│ │ (5% chance of losing more than this tonight) │
│ │ │
│ │ Your historical max drawdown: ₹85,000 │
│ │ Current drawdown from peak: ₹12,000 │
│ │ │
│ │ RISK STATUS: 🟢 WITHIN LIMITS │
│ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
│ │
│ [HEDGE INTER] [HEDGE BAYERN] [CLOSE ALL +₹20K] [RIDE] │
│ │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
What's happening:
- Mark-to-market on all positions (like a trading book)
- Portfolio-level correlation analysis
- VaR calculation (professional risk metric)
- Drawdown tracking
- Decorrelation suggestions
Vikram: Simple vs Complex Scenarios
| Scenario | What Vikram Wants | What SuperSkin Does |
|---|---|---|
| SIMPLE: Best price | "Where's the best odds NOW?" | Real-time comparison with refresh, one-click execution |
| SIMPLE: Position check | "What's my P&L?" | Mark-to-market across all positions, portfolio view |
| SIMPLE: Steam alert | "Tell me when odds move 5%+" | Instant push notification with direction and magnitude |
| COMPLEX: Model integration | "Compare my model vs yours" | Alignment analysis, conflict resolution with data |
| COMPLEX: Execution optimization | "Where do I place ₹200K?" | Account limits, split recommendations, arb detection |
| COMPLEX: Risk management | "What's my portfolio risk?" | Correlation matrix, VaR, drawdown, hedging scenarios |
System Adaptation Summary
The same SuperSkin platform serves all three archetypes by adapting its:
| Dimension | Raju (Casual) | Sneha (Semi-Pro) | Vikram (Pro) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Language | Rupees, simple terms | Percentages, metrics | Professional jargon |
| Data Depth | Minimal, actionable | Detailed, analytical | Full transparency |
| Recommendations | Strong (protector) | Suggestive (partner) | Informational (tool) |
| Default View | Single bet, big buttons | Daily/weekly planner | Multi-position dashboard |
| Alerts | "Your team is playing!" | "Value signal found" | "Steam move: act NOW" |
| Risk Controls | Enforced limits | Suggested limits | Displayed metrics |
| Speed | Doesn't matter | Matters sometimes | Critical (seconds) |
| Complexity | Hidden | Available on request | Fully exposed |
Journey Comparison: Same Match, Three Users
Match: Man City vs Arsenal, Premier League, Saturday 8:30 PM
Raju's Experience
Morning: "Arsenal playing tonight! Your lucky team 🍀"
Evening: "Best odds: Arsenal @ 3.40 (Pinnacle). You've won 4/6 on Arsenal."
Live: "Arsenal down 1-0. Cash out ₹320 or wait? You usually panic-sell here..."
Result: Push notification with simple result and profit/loss
Sneha's Experience
Morning: Value scan shows Arsenal Draw @ 3.60 has +6.8% edge
Research: Full model breakdown, historical draw frequency, team news impact
Pre-match: Kelly stake suggestion: ₹1,800 on Draw
Live: Portfolio view with 3 other positions, correlation analysis
Post-match: Performance tracking, strategy validation
Vikram's Experience
Morning: Models uploaded, cross-validated against SuperSkin
Pre-match: Execution plan across 4 bookmakers to maximize stake
5 mins before: Steam alert - City drifting, Draw shortening
Live: Multi-screen with odds charts, xG, hedge calculator running
Real-time: Partial cash out at 65' to lock ₹12K profit, ride remainder
Post-match: P&L booked, tax records updated, strategy metrics refreshed
Key Design Principles
1. Progressive Disclosure
- Raju sees only what he needs
- Sneha can drill down on demand
- Vikram gets everything by default
2. Behavioral Learning
- System learns each user's patterns
- Recommendations improve over time
- "You usually do X" becomes actionable insight
3. Protection Scales with Need
- Raju: Active intervention (save him from himself)
- Sneha: Passive warnings (data-driven nudges)
- Vikram: Information only (he knows what he's doing)
4. Speed Scales with Expertise
- Raju: Deliberate friction (prevents impulsive bets)
- Sneha: Balanced flow (research → decision → bet)
- Vikram: Minimum friction (hotkeys, one-click, APIs)
5. Same Data, Different Presentation
- All three access the same underlying value calculations
- Presentation adapts to comprehension level
- No user is "dumbed down" - just focused differently
Appendix: Feature Access by Persona
| Feature | Raju | Sneha | Vikram |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price comparison | ✅ Simple | ✅ Detailed | ✅ Real-time |
| Value signals | ⭐ Stars only | ✅ Edge + methodology | ✅ Raw probability |
| Cash out calculator | ✅ Recommendation | ✅ With math | ✅ Market comparison |
| AI Chat | ✅ "Should I bet?" | ✅ "Explain the model" | ✅ API integration |
| Trading charts | ❌ Hidden | ✅ On request | ✅ Default view |
| Kelly calculator | ❌ Hidden | ✅ With explanation | ✅ Portfolio-level |
| Backtest engine | ❌ Hidden | ✅ Strategy testing | ✅ Model validation |
| Portfolio view | ❌ Single bet | ✅ Multi-bet | ✅ Full trading book |
| Hedge calculator | ❌ Hidden | ✅ On request | ✅ Real-time |
| API access | ❌ | ❌ | ✅ |
| Account management | ❌ | ❌ | ✅ Multi-book |
| Risk metrics (VaR) | ❌ | ❌ | ✅ |
| Tax/record export | ❌ | ✅ CSV | ✅ Full audit trail |